The first level of hindsight bias, memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment (“I said it would happen”) Vohs in their research identified 3 situations, where hindsight bias can influence our thought process: Memory Distortion Research also focuses on how we recall selective information related to the outcome of an event to convince ourselves what happened was supposed to happen” Neal J. Knowing we can predict what happens to us helps us feel safe in an unpredictable world. So WHY are we so quick to believe that we knew-it-all when we can’t even give an objective proof to support our claim?Ĭharles Holm, in his book, ‘The 25 Cognitive Biases - Uncovering the myth of Rational Thinking’ states, “Our dire need to make sense of this world around us makes us susceptible to this bias. So, be conscious & ask yourselves next time when this bias creeps into your mind, did you really know it or you felt it or did you even ‘felt it’?. “I knew this question will come in the exam, I should have studied it”, sighed Deepti as the exam got over. Let’s understand this from the examples below. The problem with Hindsight Bias is that a lot of times we actually didn’t know it all along, we only feel as though we did. Hindsight bias is also called the ‘knew-it-all-along’ effect or ‘creeping determinism’. And only after the event has occurred do people claim this was likely to happen. The term hindsight bias refers to the tendency of the people to claim that they knew the outcome of an event all along. The hindsight bias was first reported by the American psychologist Baruch Fischhoff in 1975. Let’s take a closer look at this knew-it-all(KIA) bias, also known as Hindsight Bias & find the answers to the questions ourselves. You all must be thinking why are we discussing this here? It doesn’t hurt anyone to say that? Is it bad? Is it Good? Isn’t it something to feel proud of that you predicted something & it came true? The above situations may differ each time, but we hear ourselves say it over and over again, “I knew it all along…didn’t I”. “I knew it he will be the murderer in the end, how smart can I be”, said my friend as soon as the killer was revealed in the movie. “I knew it all along India will win this match”, Mohit burst with joy, as Dhoni hits a six in the last ball. “I knew they will get married in 2020, I foretold Richa but she kept denying”, exclaimed my friend as she saw an Instagram post of Richa getting married in 2020. “I knew that the exams will be postponed due to the pandemic”, said my friend when her exams got postponed due to the Covid-19. I knew this was going to happen”, the thought popped up in my mind as I came back to the kitchen to see the milk boiled over. “I just left the kitchen to answer the doorbell. This dissertation proposes to investigate when and why hindsight bias fails to appear, and what it means for the psychological processes underlying the hindsight bias, and more broadly, the interpretation of older psychological research.Hindsight Bias: “I knew it all along, didn’t I?” ![]() However, we must interpret older results in the behavioral sciences with new perspective on the importance of sample size and statistical power (Ioannidis, 2005). Multiple failures to debias, with methods including informing participants about the bias (Fischhoff, 1977) and manipulating participant perspective (Wood, 1978) further grew the reputation for the strength of this bias. Researchers have found people fall victim to hindsight biases in a variety of domains, including general knowledge (Fischoff, 1977 Wood, 1978), medical decisions (Arkes, Wortmann, Saville, & Harkness, 1981), and political outcomes (Fischhoff & Beyth, 1975). ![]() Also known as the “knew-it-all-along effect” (Fischhoff, 1975) the hindsight bias refers to the inability for individuals to remember their previous state of knowledge after learning an outcome. The hindsight bias may not be as robust as previously believed.
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